Foresight studies on Finland’s Future Geo-economic dependencies

1)Overcoming material related challenges: Our key ask is to understand on what critical materials Europe and Finland depends on in green and digital transition and what kind of role the geopolitical dependencies play in regional green and digital transition. What are the material related bottle necks, both in raw materials as well as in electronic components or intermediate products? As the race for critical materials intensifies, for instance China’s 2060 carbon neutrality will increase demand for certain materials globally, how can Europe and Finland overcome material related challenges in the future? Will circular economy or new materials provide an answer? Will these material related bottle necks prevent the green and digital transition in planned schedules? What kind of best practices are there and what is the EU doing to overcome these challenges as well as reducing global dependences? The value of the study 1) Overcoming material related challenges is 30,000 €. The work is expected to be carried out between 11/2022 (end of the November) and 1/2023. The scope of the procurement is described in more detail in Appendix 1 "Procurement Description".

2) Supply Chains on the move In this part of the analysis, we would like to understand key changes and drivers of the described changes over the last 20 years (since year 2000) and projections to the future: 1) Current state of supply chains, with the perspective of last 20 years: a. Development of global and regional trade hubs (goods, intermediate goods and services) and the changes occurred over time (in category of goods, volume and value) including potential projections for the next 5-10 years (with related conditions); including analysis of causes/drivers of changes. b. Trading partners and trade flows: how the relationships have changed over time and what changes are likely in the future (incl. related conditions) c. Changes in roles and relationships of US, Europe, China, Russia, India, Japan and other key players, regionally and globally d. Key impacts of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine: how the pandemics and the war have affected the trade hubs/relationships and FDIs. e. Impacts of trade agreements 2) Reflecting the above (current state of supply chains), projections for the next 5-10 years: a. Plausible changes ahead (and conditions): what changes are likely to emerge and on which conditions b. Drivers of future developments and changes: analysis on drivers and motivations for potential changes, including conditions on which the described changes are likely to emerge. c. Impact of trade agreements in different regions 3) The outcomes and implications of changes and key developments of future supply chains a. Key takeouts of alternative paths forward (eg. winners and losers in each ‘scenario’) b. Potential risks and opportunities: for different key industries The value of the study 2) Supply Chains on the move is 30,000 €. The work is expected to be carried out between 11/2022 (end of the November) and 1/2023. The scope of the procurement is described in more detail in Appendix 1 "Procurement Description".